Their implementation would demand a substantial degree of technical and political collaboration – something that for the time being appears elusive. Besides, it must not be forgotten that even though the greenback is a fiat currency, it is backed by US power projection capabilities, including a formidable nuclear arsenal. One way or another, the prospect of prolonged geopolitical and financial unipolarity is a profoundly ahistorical notion. If gold reassumes a central role in worldwide financial markets as a result of a multilateral consensus negotiated amongst the great powers – this could happen in the aftermath of a new major financial crisis of international proportions – some players would evidently be better positioned than others. This NPR will aim to build confidence among NPT stakeholders, essentially Listen on Apple Podcasts. Military, Politics, Economy, Energy Security, Environment, Commodities Geopolitical Analysis & Forecasting . Finally, one of the main consequences of this would be pronounced regionalization. Past is precedent in Israeli election, Secretary-General Guterres warns on the financial stability of the developing world, and troubling signs of a civil war in Myanmar. Blogger Outreach or Influencer Marketing. Next in our series on strategic commodities we examine tantalum, a conflict mineral with complex geopolitical ramifications for East Africa and beyond. The recent China-Iran agreement presents Baghdad with a profound geopolitical choice: the United States or China? Actually, elements of them can co-exist. In fact, it looks like – more than ever before – strategic competition is unfolding in the field of finance. Foreign Support It is difficult to establish the degree and scope of external involvement in the Naxalite insurgency. As a matter of statecraft, China has been assertively promoting the internationalization of the yuan, also known as renminbi, a measure intended to enhance Chinese national power in the realm of finance. Western Balkans Stability Monitor; Reviews . GEOPOLITICAL.BIZ. In order to envisage them, it is essential to highlight that nature abhors power voids. In other words, the players that control the largest gold holdings would have the chance to define the essential rules in the structural rearrangement of global financial governance. Nevertheless, it is not clear what will happen once the American dollar is no longer the dominant currency. Japan; General elections These will be the first major electoral test for the ruling Liberal Democratic Party and its new leader since long-time prime minister Abe Shinzo left office in 2020. The United States is still the world’s most powerful national state. For the US economy, actual events produced a small, but short-lived decline in economic activity with the stock market rising one month after the shock. geopolitical threats than by actual events, such as the start of a war or imposition of sanctions. As seasoned financial experts explain, financial and monetary crises are a lot like nuclear chain reactions. Given its apt handling of COVID-19 and ongoing US-China tensions, the country is now well placed to lead Southeast Asia’s economic recovery. Monitor your product name, brand, competitors, keywords, authors, or any other topics. Global Security Review Defense & Security. Therefore, the emergence of SDRs as international money offers valuable opportunities for those interested in disabling the dollar’s supremacy, but without worrying about the disruption of financial stability. Fourth Scenario: Rise of a Multilateral Currency. In other words, “sinking” the greenback might – either directly or indirectly – trigger dire financial, economic, and fiscal dislocations that could engulf the attackers themselves. A possibility that arises from this reasoning is the birth of a multilateral currency. Geopolitical Monitor. Furthermore, as a matter of policy in terms of grand strategy, Washington has done everything in its power to preserve and enhance the dominant role of its currency as an international unit of account, store of value and medium of exchange. Moreover, it must be pointed out that the conditions mentioned in these scenarios are not necessarily mutually exclusive. However, since the stakes are too great, it would be unwise to assume that the outcome will not be shaped by an increasing level of geopolitical tension. Feedspot has over 100k Influential Bloggers database classified in more than 1500 niche categories. We take a … Their currencies follow a similar trajectory. In geopolitical terms, this idea might be attractive in case the global balance of power is reasonably stable. A map is essential in this regard. Far from being static, it is continuously evolving. Centralize your search, alerting, and visualization to detect threats fast with real-time, location-based OSINT intelligence that is dynamically linked, categorized, and updated in every language from social media, the dark web , and more. Therefore, China intends to challenge the US monetary hegemony, even if that means the creation of a system of parallel structures conceived to bypass the dollar. First Scenario: Continued Supremacy of the US Dollar. Even though it can be enduring, the global monetary order needs to be understood as a process that is always in flux. In Latin America, new forms of resistance as well as indigenous concepts of self-determination and autonomy started to question the standard understandings of space. Monitor your product name, brand, competitors, keywords, authors, or any other topics. Situation Report (600-2,000 words) A situation report takes one pertinent geopolitical topic or issue and analyzes it from all possible angles. Nikola writes for several publications such us Geopolitical Monitor, Global Security Review, Global Comment and International Policy Digest, among others. Third Scenario: Geo-Financial Bipolarity or Multipolarity. In unserem NEWS-BLOG finden Sie Recherchen, Analysen und Berichte rund um die Themen Geopolitik, Ökonomie, Business, Medien, Geld und Kapitalschutz, Recht und Steuern. After all, history provides countless examples that international financial governance and monetary affairs operate like mirrors that reflect the parallel correlation of geopolitical forces prevailing in the international system. Some analysts hold that an international monetary transition can be relatively peaceful and gradual. We » Geopolitical Monitor is an open-source intelligence collection and forecasting service. We provide research, analysis and up to date coverage on situations and events that have a substantive impact on political, military and economic affairs. In other words, it paradoxically represents a self-defeating struggle. Meanwhile, geopolitical threats produced large and protracted recessionary effects as well as a decline in stock prices. Reach thousands of authority bloggers and social media influencers in your domain area. In fact, this option’s underlying basket could even be widened so it also includes the currencies of emerging markets. Besides, the redefinition of certain financial dynamics as issues that are being dealt with in terms of high strategy because of their ramifications in the field of international and national security is also a phenomenon that cannot be overlooked. Its might is felt in the domains of military affairs, geopolitics, intelligence, industry, energy, science, culture and technology. Second Scenario: Replacement by another National Currency. It was also a process that played a role in the breakdown of society and order that ended up in a stark civilizational regression. Hence, they have been described as the monetary equivalent of Esperanto. GPF is non-ideological, analyzes the world and forecasts the future using geopolitics: political, economic, military and geographic dimensions at the foundation of a nation. is a registered trade name of Geopoliticalmonitor Intelligence Corp. © 2021 Geopoliticalmonitor Intelligence Corp., All Rights Reserved | ISSN 1927-3045. you need to be logged in to access this page. This would entail a return to representative money. Geopolitical Futures (GPF) was founded in 2015 by George Friedman, international strategist and author of The Next 100 Years. Only time will tell if such plans go as expected, especially considering that this project has sparked heated debates about its implications for national security, personal privacy and the challenges it poses in terms of crafting a monetary policy related to currencies issued by national states with diverging geopolitical and economic interests. It conveys information that reflects the basic components of a place… When it comes to geopolitics, the key is to build a forecast by first noting the obvious. Hence, any great power that is interested in crippling the hegemonic role of the greenback needs to carefully calculate the repercussions associated with the geopolitical burden that comes with being the issuer of the world’s dominant currency. In review, Geopolitics Alert publishes news and opinions related to USA conflicts around the world from a non-interventionist perspective. So far, none of the cryptocurrencies that have been launched is issued by a central bank. Geopolitics Alert uses occasional moderate loaded words that favor the left such as: “ There’s a great deal to be said about Donald Trump’s pardon for criminal racist Joe Arpaio. Thus, in this case the corresponding projections need to transcend the disciplinary scope of traditional economic science. Peru’s presidency is up for grabs in what projects to be one of the most competitive elections in recent memory. Yet, Washington is not exactly powerless and it is logical to assume that it will not relinquish such an asset without a fight. This sounds almost apocalyptic, but that does not make it impossible. Hence, exploring the future of monetary hegemony is a challenging task that requires considering both geopolitical and financial factors. This could be through satellite or non-satellite-based ship monitoring systems with installed transponders in every fishing boat. In the debate concerning the future of monetary hegemony, it has been argued that a global financial order based on gold as its cornerstone could lead to an international system more stable in terms of geopolitical tension or even military conflict. Companies should assess and monitor how geopolitical relations with China may impact deals and financing in their sector of operation. Therefore, the emergence of SDRs as international money offers … At least for the time being, their critical mass lacks a strong gravitational pull. *This article was originally published on February 20, 2020. Moreover, it would prevent the structural distortions commonly associated with unipolar monetary hegemony. Hence, the rise of the renminbi is a sign of China’s increasing economic strength. 12 Predictions for Global Geopolitics for 2019 through 2025—and Beyond Across the globe, governments and institutions face increasing threats to their legitimacy and authority. In geopolitical terms, this idea might be attractive in case the global balance of power is reasonably stable. For instance, they can only be used by states, but not yet by either companies or individuals. Nepalese and Filipino Maoist outfits have long been suspected of providing rhetorical and material support to the CPI(M). In fact, it has used many tools – including institutional frameworks, bilateral trade, the development of financial hubs, business platforms and investment agreements – in order to advance its international position and projection. This reality fuels reasonable doubts about the long-term prospects of fiat money, in general, and the monetary hegemony of the US dollar, in particular. In this scenario, perhaps the golden rule would apply. Finally, another card that the US can play in case of dangerous geo-financial turmoil is to resort to its gold reserves in order to back the greenback with the yellow metal once again. The most feasible candidate would be something called “Special Drawing Rights,” an artificial asset created as a unit of account by the International Monetary Fund, and whose value is tied to a basket of several currencies. Week in Review: Geopolitical Posturing in the Balkans. Other factors worth taking into account are the intrinsic volatile nature of contemporary financial markets – which are vulnerable to several kinds of disruptions – the systemic accumulation of unpayable debts, and the implementation of monetary policies that, far from correcting structural imbalances, are actually deepening them. Moreover, it would prevent the structural distortions commonly associated with unipolar monetary hegemony. Moreover, the exchange rate of existing stateless cryptocurrencies (like Bitcoin) is so volatile that –instead of acting as reliable and stable stores of value – they operate like speculative assets. The latest version of a global gold standard was dismantled when President Nixon refused to deliver gold in exchange for dollars, as was agreed when the Bretton Woods framework was forged through multilateral negotiations. But governing won’t be easy for the winner. This is the most common type of submission we receive at, as it tends to … Hence, it seems that at least the first generation of cryptocurrencies will only act as a medium of exchange in very specific markets, including some of the deepest corners of the so-called “dark web.”. However, in this case the dollar could still act as the reserve currency of one of these blocs. Accordingly, the yuan is currently positioned as a rising currency, but it is still too early to tell whether it is capable of overtaking the US dollar as the world’s reserve currency.…/. By Geopolitical Monitor By Try Ananto Wicaksono As the world’s largest producer and consumer of palm oil, the palm oil industry has become an important part of Indonesia’s economy. Even though the dollar’s position still seems safe for the near future, the hypothetical rise of a parallel financial order anchored to gold as a monetary unit is a possibility that needs to be considered, especially when there are geopolitical incentives to diminish the dollar’s global dominance. Moreover, the fact that monetary reserves held by central banks are mostly denominated in US dollars provides a disincentive against attacks on the US currency. The power of empires inevitably declines after reaching their zenith. Therefore, there are reasonable doubts and uncertainty about the monetary reliability of the US dollar in the long run. Continuously monitor for the geopolitical risks that matter most — from threats in specific regions to mentions tied to dangerous events.